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中南大学学报(社会科学版)
ZHONGNAN DAXUE XUEBAO(SHEHUI KEXUE BAN)

2015年04月第21卷第2期
   
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文章编号:1672-3104(2015)02-0109-09
 
人口年龄结构、预期寿命与居民消费率——基于省际动态面板系统GMM的检验
 
李斌,吴书胜
 
(湖南大学经济与贸易学院,湖南长沙,410006)
 
摘  要: 利用中国1997—2012年的省级面板数据和动态面板GMM估计方法,考察了人口年龄结构、预期寿命对居民消费率的影响。结果发现,人口年龄结构、预期寿命对居民消费率有显著影响,但具有很大的区域性。东中西部地区比较表明:少儿抚养比对居民消费率的影响由大到小为东部、中部、西部;老年抚养比对居民消费率影响由大到小为西部、中部、东部;预期寿命对居民消费率的影响由大到小为东部、西部、中部。
 
关键字: 人口年龄结构;预期寿命;居民消费率;动态面板;GMM估计
 
 
Population age structure, life expectancy and household consumption rate: GMM test with provincial dynamic panel data
 
LI Bin, WU Shusheng
 
(School of Economy and Trade, Hunan University, Changsha 410006, China)
 
Abstract: By using panel data from Chinese provinces during the period 1997—2012, the study conducts a dynamic panel analysis of the impacts of population age structure and life expectancy on household consumption rate. The results show that population age structure and life expectancy have significant impacts on household consumption rate with huge regional characteristics. A comparison of eastern, central and western areas suggests that the descending order of the effect of child dependency ratio on household consumption rate is eastern, central and western areas, that the descending order of the effect of aging on household consumption rate is western, central and eastern areas, and that the descending order of the effect of expectancy on household consumption rate is eastern, western and central areas.
 
Key words: population age structure; life expectancy; household consumption rate; dynamic panel data; GMM estimation
 
 
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